Bulgaria will soon measure how anxious or calm society feels with a new quarterly Index of Public Tension. Announced by the Center for Analyses and Crisis Communications (ЦАКК) and the sociological agency “Мяра”, and developed in partnership with Sensika, the Index will provide a structured way to track public mood and anticipate crises.
The first official score will be published on October 1, 2025, covering the period July–September 2025.
What the Index measures
The Index shows whether public tension in Bulgaria is rising or easing, giving institutions, NGOs, and businesses an evidence-based way to anticipate risks.
It uses 21 indicators, grouped into three domains:
- Publicity: media and social media signals, protest activity, and public discontent — analyzed with Sensika’s monitoring platform.
- State and environment: political developments, inflation, crime, natural disasters, and other public issues.
- Well-being: household incomes, trust in institutions, perceptions of prices, and expectations for the near future.
In addition, the Index combines official statistics, monthly surveys, and media intelligence, creating a 360-degree perspective on social mood.
The scoring system
Scores range from 0 to 10, divided into four bands:
- 0–3.99: low tension, risks are under control
- 4–5.99: medium tension, risks partly controlled
- 6–7.99: high tension, risk of escalation difficult to manage
- 8–10: very high tension, situation nearly unmanageable
As a result, decision-makers can compare scores across quarters and detect long-term shifts.
A new tool for tracking social anxiety
The Index acts not only as a diagnostic snapshot but also as a predictive signal. For example, it can highlight how Bulgarians are likely to react to sudden price shocks, policy changes, or major incidents.
Leaders behind the project note that political tension has become a constant backdrop. However, the Index adds structure: a systematic reading of public mood based on multiple, complementary data sources.
Sensika’s contribution
Sensika provides the media and social monitoring layer within the “Publicity” domain. Our platform continuously scans Bulgarian news outlets and social channels, identifying signals of discontent, protest dynamics, and sentiment shifts. These capabilities also underpin our approach to crisis management with media monitoring.
By combining these insights with surveys and statistics, the Index reflects both fast-moving discourse and slower-moving official data. In turn, this balanced approach offers a more accurate picture of national tension.
Timeline and access
- Now: Methodology publicly presented
- October 1, 2025: First quarterly score announced (Q3 2025)
- Every quarter: Updates published, with free access to the top-line score and in-depth analysis available to subscribers
Key takeaways
- The Index of Public Tension is a joint project by ЦАКК and “Мяра,” with Sensika as the media intelligence partner.
- It tracks 21 indicators across three domains: state and environment, well-being, and publicity.
- Results are scored on a 0–10 scale and updated quarterly.
- The first score will be released on October 1, 2025.
Bulgaria’s new Index of Public Tension will help institutions, businesses, and NGOs understand how society reacts to evolving risks. By combining official data, surveys, and Sensika’s media intelligence, it provides an early-warning signal that supports prevention and better crisis management.
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